![]() ![]() The Long March 5 family of rockets have been integral to China's near-term space ambitions - from the delivery of modules and crew of its planned space station to launches of exploratory probes to the moon and even Mars. The empty core stage has been losing altitude since last week, but the speed of its orbital decay remains uncertain due to unpredictable atmospheric variables. The latest Long March rocket launched on April 29 was the second deployment of the 5B variant since its maiden flight in May last year. In late April, authorities in the city of Shiyan, Hubei province, issued a notice to people in the surrounding county to prepare for evacuation as parts were expected to land in the area. In March debris from a Falcon 9 rocket launched by US company SpaceX fell to Earth in Washington and on the Oregon coast.An area near New Zealand's North Island was identified as a possible crash location, though it could fall anywhere, say experts In 2019 the space agency controlled the demolition of its second station, Tiangong-2, in the atmosphere. It was the heaviest debris to fall uncontrolled since the former Soviet space station Salyut 7 in 1991.Ĭhina’s first space station, Tiangong-1, crashed into the Pacific in 2016 after Beijing confirmed it had lost control. In May 2020 another Chinese rocket fell uncontrolled into the Atlantic off west Africa. ”This particular case combines quite some of the mass in a single event which is remarkable, but it will not alter the annual risk profile too much,” Krag said. ![]() The vast majority plunges into the Pacific. For the Chinese rocket body, that would be the equivalent of several tonnes.Ībout 150 tonnes of space hardware fall back to Earth each year and so far there have been no casualties. “A rough rule of thumb derived from the more detailed analysis of known objects, but not necessarily comparable, suggests that between 20% and 40% of the dry mass can survive,” he said. Krag said it was not possible to predict how much of the rocket would survive re-entry without having design details of the Long March 5b first stage. The rocket’s trajectory means that any parts that survive re-entry will land between 41 degrees north and 41 degreessouth, a strip of Earth that runs from southern regions of Spain, Portugal and Italy down to Australia. It is hard to pinpoint when and where the rocket will come down, but current ESA estimates are between 8 May and 10 May. The latest data shows it is in an elliptical orbit ranging from 165km to 292km from Earth. Holger Krag, the head of the European Space Agency’s space debris office, said an Austrian laser station was able to track the falling rocket. China plans 10 more launches to carry additional parts of the space station into orbit. The Long March 5B rocket carried the main module of Tianhe, or Heavenly Harmony, into orbit on 29 April. Things more than 10 tonnes, we don’t let them fall out of the sky uncontrolled deliberately.” “What’s bad is that it’s really negligent on China’s part. ![]()
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